Saturday, 25 January 2020
Thursday, 7 March 2019
Shipping - doobti naiya paar lagade
Another long term pick could be in the shipping industry. Baltic Dry Index is at one of the biggest support since 2000s.
2015 & 2016 were two years the index went below this support.
Based on above & considering cyclical nature of Shipping one can start taking positions in Shipping companies in India.
Shreyas Shipping
On weekly charts one can see its above a major support, MACD is looking good. OBV has been at elevated levels while price crashed from 640 to below 200. Shows large amount of accumalation
Trade - Buy at CMP, keep increase amount as the trade moves your way.
SL - can be below 170, but can be ignored.
Target - 500, 640
2015 & 2016 were two years the index went below this support.
Based on above & considering cyclical nature of Shipping one can start taking positions in Shipping companies in India.
Shreyas Shipping
On weekly charts one can see its above a major support, MACD is looking good. OBV has been at elevated levels while price crashed from 640 to below 200. Shows large amount of accumalation
Trade - Buy at CMP, keep increase amount as the trade moves your way.
SL - can be below 170, but can be ignored.
Target - 500, 640
Wednesday, 6 March 2019
Long term investing via charts
There's lot of discussion around how one can't use technicals/ charts for long term investing.
Biggest challenge I have faced in my short investing journey is finding the fair price for a company. DCF, PE, DDM get thrown at you. DCF has lot of assumptions, PE too keeps fluctuating, and different sites have different PEs assigned for past data.
Another thing that works against relying on quarterly numbers is they are quite old. These days insiders know of the results and start dumping stock if numbers are going to be bad.
Charts do help visually to find value. All stocks have patterns i.e take support at some moving average, or move in a particular range over long term.
Page Industries
Storied stock which has made tons of money. Always been a high PE stock & always expensive. Used to own this and chickened out at 9,000.
Recently got back at 22,000 odd levels. Charts clearly shows Page has a habit of great returns & then a sharp correction taking it below its 50Week DMA. From there on, it again has a big run up. Happened in Feb 2016, Nov 2016 to May 2017 Page took support at 50DMA. Then it had a big run till 2018. It would be safe to assume 50WDMA is where value is seen.
Feb 2019 Page has gone way below 50WDMA, and one could safely assume there's lot of value in the stock. Lets see how this goes in 1 year.
MRF
An expensive stock that always looks way over valued. Again a look at the weekly charts will show area of value. Generally takes support a 50WDMA and bounces back after consolidation. This time in Feb 2019, it went way below 50WDMA and took support at 200WDMA. Looks like highly undervalued. Started buying around 58,000 levels.
Biggest challenge I have faced in my short investing journey is finding the fair price for a company. DCF, PE, DDM get thrown at you. DCF has lot of assumptions, PE too keeps fluctuating, and different sites have different PEs assigned for past data.
Another thing that works against relying on quarterly numbers is they are quite old. These days insiders know of the results and start dumping stock if numbers are going to be bad.
Charts do help visually to find value. All stocks have patterns i.e take support at some moving average, or move in a particular range over long term.
Page Industries
Storied stock which has made tons of money. Always been a high PE stock & always expensive. Used to own this and chickened out at 9,000.
Recently got back at 22,000 odd levels. Charts clearly shows Page has a habit of great returns & then a sharp correction taking it below its 50Week DMA. From there on, it again has a big run up. Happened in Feb 2016, Nov 2016 to May 2017 Page took support at 50DMA. Then it had a big run till 2018. It would be safe to assume 50WDMA is where value is seen.
Feb 2019 Page has gone way below 50WDMA, and one could safely assume there's lot of value in the stock. Lets see how this goes in 1 year.
MRF
An expensive stock that always looks way over valued. Again a look at the weekly charts will show area of value. Generally takes support a 50WDMA and bounces back after consolidation. This time in Feb 2019, it went way below 50WDMA and took support at 200WDMA. Looks like highly undervalued. Started buying around 58,000 levels.
Sunday, 3 March 2019
When to sell
Selling is much more difficult than buying.
Hoping to find some signal using charts as fundamental analysis is way too slow to save one from big drops.
I'll look at some of the recent falls, and look at various indicators. Each stock has its own story, and you should look patterns unique to that stock. Could be moving averages, MACD, OBV, trendlines etc
Graphite India
Graphite India has a parabolic rise, and made lot of money for early investors.
From June 2017, the stock had been over all the moving averages ie. 20, 50, 200 (Weekly)
Signs of reversal started in Jan 2018.
RSI went below overbought after a long time
MACD bearish crossover
Broke 20WMA
RSI was giving a divergence as the price was going up, RSI was going down. Generally a sign to jump of the train.
Hoping to find some signal using charts as fundamental analysis is way too slow to save one from big drops.
I'll look at some of the recent falls, and look at various indicators. Each stock has its own story, and you should look patterns unique to that stock. Could be moving averages, MACD, OBV, trendlines etc
Graphite India
Graphite India has a parabolic rise, and made lot of money for early investors.
From June 2017, the stock had been over all the moving averages ie. 20, 50, 200 (Weekly)
Signs of reversal started in Jan 2018.
RSI went below overbought after a long time
MACD bearish crossover
Broke 20WMA
RSI was giving a divergence as the price was going up, RSI was going down. Generally a sign to jump of the train.
Jaiprakash Ass - Penny stocks ki jai!
Another fallen stock looking to turnaround
Bought at 5.9
Target 14
SL 5.25
3rd March
Look to add more once it crosses 50DMA around 6.6
5th March
Has moved above 50DMA with ease.
Bought at 5.9
Target 14
SL 5.25
3rd March
Look to add more once it crosses 50DMA around 6.6
5th March
Has moved above 50DMA with ease.
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