Shipping - doobti naiya paar lagade

Another long term pick could be in the shipping industry. Baltic Dry Index is at one of the biggest support since 2000s.

2015 & 2016 were two years the index went below this support.

Based on above & considering cyclical nature of Shipping one can start taking positions in Shipping companies in India.

Shreyas Shipping

On weekly charts one can see its above a major support, MACD is looking good. OBV has been at elevated levels while price crashed from 640 to below 200. Shows large amount of accumalation

Trade - Buy at CMP, keep increase amount as the trade moves your way.
SL - can be below 170, but can be ignored.
Target - 500, 640

Long term investing via charts

There's lot of discussion around how one can't use technicals/ charts for long term investing.

Biggest challenge I have faced in my short investing journey is finding the fair price for a company. DCF, PE, DDM get thrown at you. DCF has lot of assumptions, PE too keeps fluctuating, and different sites have different PEs assigned for past data.

Another thing that works against relying on quarterly numbers is they are quite old. These days insiders know of the results and start dumping stock if numbers are going to be bad.

Charts do help visually to find value. All stocks have patterns i.e take support at some moving average, or move in a particular range over long term.

Page Industries

Storied stock which has made tons of money. Always been a high PE stock & always expensive. Used to own this and chickened out at 9,000.

Recently got back at 22,000 odd levels. Charts clearly shows Page has a habit of great returns & then a sharp correction taking it below its 50Week DMA. From there on, it again has a big run up. Happened in Feb 2016, Nov 2016 to May 2017 Page took support at 50DMA. Then it had a big run till 2018. It would be safe to assume 50WDMA is where value is seen.

Feb 2019 Page has gone way below 50WDMA, and one could safely assume there's lot of value in the stock. Lets see how this goes in 1 year.

MRF

An expensive stock that always looks way over valued. Again a look at the weekly charts will show area of value. Generally takes support a 50WDMA and bounces back after consolidation. This time in Feb 2019, it went way below 50WDMA and took support at 200WDMA. Looks like highly undervalued. Started buying around 58,000 levels.

When to sell

Selling is much more difficult than buying.

Hoping to find some signal using charts as fundamental analysis is way too slow to save one from big drops.

I'll look at some of the recent falls, and look at various indicators. Each stock has its own story, and you should look patterns unique to that stock. Could be moving averages, MACD, OBV, trendlines etc

Graphite India

Graphite India has a parabolic rise, and made lot of money for early investors.

From June 2017, the stock had been over all the moving averages ie. 20, 50, 200 (Weekly)

Signs of reversal started in Jan 2018.

RSI went below overbought after a long time
MACD bearish crossover
Broke 20WMA

RSI was giving a divergence as the price was going up, RSI was going down. Generally a sign to jump of the train.

Jaiprakash Ass - Penny stocks ki jai!

Another fallen stock looking to turnaround

Bought at 5.9
Target 14
SL 5.25

3rd March

Look to add more once it crosses 50DMA around 6.6

5th March

Has moved above 50DMA with ease.

Sun TV - The Sun looks to rise again...

Sun TV lost 50% from peak & now its showing signs of turning around.

Bought at 567

Target 850

SL 575

3rd March 

MADC(W) is bullish

Next target around 200DMA at 693

Paper stocks - all firing at the same time

1st March - Some of the biggest gainers were paper stocks like NR Agarwal, West Coast, Ruchira & Kuantum.

These stocks have a habit of moving at ferocious pace. Quick gains & losses can be made

Here are some of the charts

NR Agarwal - Weekly Chart. Looks set for a big move

Kuantum Papers - Weekly chart, MACD looking good

5th March

Bought Kuantum @523, JKPaper @145, NRAgarwal @352 & Ruchira @106

Tata Motors - aur kitna maroge

Bought Tata Motors
Nifty Auto MACD (Daily) is turning bullish
TaMo MACD (Daily) is bullish
Closed above 50DMA
Bought at 173, Target 229
SL 164

3rd March

Rumours about TaMo selling part of JLR floating around. Stock above 50DMA, hold for the moment. Add more after 187

Yes Bank - All that could go wrong...

Buying Yes Bank in small tranches.
Bank has got all clear from RBI
New Management has been announced
There was a big gap up suggesting a run away gap
MACD (W) Bullish

Buy around 215
SL 186, Target 322
R/R 3.84

Update - 3rd March

Moved to 238, new CEO in place. Story getting stronger

Next target is 268 which is 200DMA

ONGC - Can it go any lower

Stock trading at multi month lows

Has a pattern of going up from these levels

Bought at 140

SL 125

Targets 185, 210

18 Feb

MACD(W) - Not bullish yet

3rd March

MACD(W) - Bullish.
Next Target 200DMA at 158. Stop loss 144 below 50DMA

Dish TV

Saw Nifty Media index showing strength on MACD (Weekly)

Dish TV has just had a bullish crossover on weekly basis, and there had been consistent volume build up

18-Feb

Moved above 50DMA

Near Term Target 42

19th Feb

Added more, as the chart is showing strength in falling market
Cleared 50DMA

21-Feb

Added more, looks like moving towards 42

3rd-March

Has seen great momentum, and looks good for a move up to 200DMA at 53

Balrampur chini - Sugar & Ethanol play

Sugar sector is in the news with Ethanol being pushed by the govt.

Balrampur after going in for a deep correction is looking good

200DMA has turned around 

MACD is bullish 

Classic Cup & Handle pattern can be seen

Got in around 112

Target around 180

Stop Loss 106

19th Feb

Added more, as the pattern is looking good

3rd March

Trade is moving along quite nicely.
Next target - 145 & then 160

Titan - All time high

Titan has been on the radar for a while, and I started buying once it cleared ATH.
ATH - Is a good place to buy as most of the selling would have already happened.

18th Feb

Lately showing some weakness as can be seen in MACD.
Overall market is looking weak, may book profits if it closes below 1025