Saturday, 10 October 2015

Ashiana Housing

What does the business do?

  • Ashiana Housing Limited (AHL) is engaged in development of residential real‐ estate for middle income and senior living group in upcoming industrial areas and towns in India.
  • Has presence in 10 Indian cities
What's exciting about the business?

  • FY16 booking to grow by 22% from 1.8 mnsqft to 2.2 msn
  • In FY 16/17 management expects to book revenues of 4.04/4.08 mnsqft
  • Successfully raised 200 crores in QIP @ 213
  • We expect a revenue/PAT CAGR of 78%/58% over FY15-FY18.
  • Given sluggish market conditions and a comfortable cash position, ASFI is well placed to scoop up value-accretive land and projects to fuel mid-to-long term growth. Management has indicated a strong acquisition pipeline, which will be a key stock trigger once profitability improves.
  • Estimate revenue ~193% revenue CAGR during FY15‐17E (to ~Rs 8.9 bn), on the back of higher deliveries from Ashiana Town Beta, Rangoli Gardens, Ashiana Anantara, Ashiana Navrang, Ashiana Utsav (Lavasa) and Gulmohar Gardens.
  • Expect AHL to report ~195% net profit CAGR during FY15‐17E (to ~Rs 2.9 bn with average margins of 32.7% (32.4% in FY15E). 
  • They earn maintenance income from all their projects
Number

Rs. in million 2013A 2014A 2015A 2016E
Net Sales
1486
1106
1427
6384
Growth %

-25.6%
29%
347%
EBITDA
349
205
373

Growth %

-41.2%
81.6%

PAT
330
223
464
2090


-32.3%
107
351%



Shilpa Medicare

About the business


  • Shilpa Medicare is engaged in the manufacture and sale of bulk drugs and intermediates in India. It offers oncology products, active pharmaceutical ingredients, fine chemicals, herbal products, and specialty chemical products
  • Currently the company is handling about ~ 50 niche products in 8 manufacturing sites and 2 R&D centers.

Wednesday, 7 October 2015

Granules India

What business is Granules India?


  • Pharma Business
  • Granules India has presence across entire manufacturing value chain from APIs, PFIs & FDs
  • Strong presence in "first line of defence" products such as Paracetamol, Ibuprofen, Meformin
What's exciting about the business?

  • Consciously moving from APIs & PFIs to formulations which have a higher margin. Formulations contribution to go up to 65% in the next 5 years & EBITDA margin to 23% from 17%
  • All manufacturing facilites are US.FDA approved
  • North America & Europe account for 65% of revenues
  • Impressive CAGR of 26% & PAT CAGR of 63% 
  • Entered high margin CRAMS business in JV with Omnichem
  • Acquired Auctus for 102crs, which has USFDA approved plants, it has added 12 APIs that have higher margins that Granules own. Auctus will be used for forward integration
  • Granules will file 10 ANDAs over the next 2 years 
  • Dated 2nd October 2015- FIIs have increased their holding to 7.25%, which was 2.85% as on June 30 2015. This shows a 154.38% jump in FIIs share holding in the company. For the first half of the current fiscal, the FIIs’ share holding in the company has surged by 79.45%

Numbers


FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17
GI-Auctus-Omnichem




Revenues
1096
1178


Growth
47%
7%


EBITDA
158
209


EBITDA Margin
14.4%
17.7%


PAT
75
104







AUCTUS




Revenues

115


Growth




EBITDA

-0.4


EBITDA Margin

-0.3%


PAT

-13







Omnichem




Revenues




Growth




EBITDA




EBITDA Margin




PAT




Cafe Coffee Day

About Indian Cafe Market Overview

  • India being primarily a tea-drinking nation
  • Coffee consumption of 110gms V/S developed countries its 8kgs per year

  • Organised cafe market to grow at 15% CAGR till 2020
  • Chained coffee market to grow by 20%

About the business


  • Opened first store in 1996, and has 1,472 stores across 209 cities
  • Has 46% market share in terms of chained coffee stores
  • CCD ranked second in most trusted brands in Food
  • All stores are owned by CCD
  • CCD is pioneer and has 1,472 stores. Second placed Barista has 169 stores.
  • 28,700 vending machines

Sunday, 4 October 2015

P I Industries

What business is PI Industries?

Today PI is one of the leading Agro-Chemical players in India. With a Pan India presence with more than 8,000 distributors, 35,000 plus retails outlets.

Products 

It manufactures and markets agrochemicals, plant nutrients, speciality fertilisers & hybrid seeds

Some of the key brands include NOMINEE GOLD, OSHEEN, KEEFUN, BIOVITA, KITAZIN, FORATOX, FOSMITE and ROKET

Custom Synthesis Exports 

PI does Custom Synthesis & Manufacturing for agro chemicals active ingredients, intermediates and other niche fine chemicals for global innovators.

Service Offering 

Process R&D 
Analytical method development 
Synthesis of high-purity products and impurities for analytical reference standards 
Five batch analysis under GLP conditions 
Detailed engineering 
Large-scale chemical manufacturing

What's exciting about the business?
  • Proven track record of management
  • Great set of numbers, for 10 years CAGR - Sales 25%, ROE - 28.3%, Profit Growth 58.3%
  • Revenue grew 48% YoY
  • Company enjoys a robust orders pipeline to be delivered over next 4-5 years- the visibility of growth therefore remains assured 
  • Custom synthesis is more than half the revenues and expected to grow further. Is an insurance against bad monsoons
    • Jambusar SEZ facility is being enhanced with 2 new plants,should offer lot of upside
  • Domestic agri-input business grew 35%
  • CSM business grew by 55% YoY  
  • Company has guided the Phase II & III of Jambusar to commence operation in the 3Q & 4QFY16 respectively, which will be the major growth driver for CSM business.
  • Current order book of CSM business stood at US$ 578mn.
  • Company is planning to launch 1-2 new domestic agri-inputs products and 2-3 new molecules every year.
  • potential of custom synthesis in the fine chemicals
  • With Population expected to be more than China by 2020, there'll be a greater demand for food and return per acreage
  • India’s demand for food grains is expected to increase from 263mmt to 310mmt by FY24. This requires a minimum of 20% improvement in the overall yields in the next 10 years.
  • India’s crop protection sector has grown at a CAGR of 10% over the past decade. This market is estimated to grow at a CAGR of 12% over the next 8 to 10 years largely driven by exports.  Exports have grown at a CAGR of 17%
  • The per capita consumption of crop protection products in India is amongst the lowest in the world. The per hectare usage of agrochemicals is only 0.6 kg in India, while for UK it is 7 kg and for China and Japan it is 13 kg and 17 kg, respectively. 
  • India’s crop protection likely to grow at 12% CAGR and take a 10% global share by FY19 from 8% in FY12
Concerns

Rains seem to have failed, and we could be facing a drought. Pesticide demand is linked to monsoons and in years of poor monsoons demand goes down drastically.

Increasing competition in the herbicide product segment, which accounts 35% of domestic business.

Modi govt doesn't seem to be all that benevolent when it comes to money to farmers.

Domestic Agriculture Industry

India’s food-grain production has grown at a CAGR of 2% during the last decade from 213 million tonnes in FY04 to 263 million tonnes in FY14.

 India ranks top five globally in the production of key crops like rice, wheat, cotton, sugarcane and corn which accounts for over 85% of cropped area. Yet regrettably, India does not feature even in the top 30 in terms of productivity. Yields are typically 50-70% lower compared to key crop producing countries like Brazil, China and USA. 

According to the Planning Commission, India’s demand for food grains is expected to increase from 263mmt to 310mmt by FY24 (a CAGR of 1.7%). With the cultivable area likely to remain constant, there is likely to be shortfall of 46mmt in food grain production by FY24. In order to meet this shortfall, the agricultural yields in India will need to grow to 2.6 tonnes per hectare from 2.2 tonnes / hectare currently. This requires a minimum of 20% improvement in the overall yields in the next 10 years. One key focus area would have to be the proper and adequate use of crop protection chemicals, because over 30% of our crops are lost to pests, diseases and weeds

The per capita consumption of crop protection products in India is amongst the lowest in the world. The per hectare usage of agrochemicals is only 0.6 kg in India, while for UK it is 7 kg and for China and Japan it is 13 kg and 17 kg, respectively.

Pesticides and seeds account for only ~10% of the cost of cultivation, while their usage boosts yields by 20-60%

Pesticides usage (kg/hectare) in India is one of lowest globally









Credit Analysis & Research (CARE)

What business is Credit Analysis & Research (CARE)?

CARE's business can be divided in to 2, Credit Rating & Research & information services. Ratings business accounts for 98% of the revenues.

Bit of History

Started in 1993, largest shareholders are IDBI, Canara Bank & SBI. CARE has over 20 years exp.

Industry Overview

There are 6 credit rating agencies in India, biggest being CRISIL, ICRA & CARE

Credit rating, its an opinion on the relative degree of risk associated with timely payment of Interest & Principal on a Debt Instrument.

Benefits of having a good credit rating



Illustration of capital-saving potential by banks on a loan of Rs.1000 Million
RatingBasel IBasel II
Risk weightCapital required 1Risk weightCapital requiredCapital saved
(rs. mn)(rs. mn)
AAA100%9020%1872
AA100%9030%2763
A100%9050%4545
BBB100%90100%900
BB and below100%90150%135(45)
1 Capital required is computed as loan amount x risk weight x 9 per cent.


What's exciting about the business?


  • Second largest player
  • Best in class EBITDA margin of 60%+ & PAT of 50%+
  • Asset light
  • PE much lower than peers, currently trading at 24.4 compared to industry standard of 44.
  • Dividend payout has increased from 30% to 63%, with estimates of reaching 72%
  • ROE of 39% with estimates of going up to 47%
  • Industry penetration is around 12% of GDP, compared to 17.2% for East Asia & 19.9% for Japan


Big Concern

RBI is allowing Banks to migrate to Internal Rating Based (IRB) approach for approved banks. This mean banks can have their own internal estimates. BLR is a big component for CARE

Annual Numbers








Mar 12
Mar 13
Mar 14
Mar 15
TTM
Sales
178.08
198.77
229.46
257.21
262.77
Sales growth

12%
15%
12%
2%
Expenses
54.90
64.89
82.83
95.14
96.84
Operating Profit
123.18
133.88
146.63
162.07
197.78
OP growth

9%
10%
11%
22%
OPM
69.17
67.35
63.90
63.01
73.27
Other Income
28.21
28.63
35.66
43.56
31.65
Interest
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.30
1.30
Depreciation
1.88
2.63
2.89
4.95
4.61
Profit before tax
149.51
159.88
179.41
199.38
191.87
PB growth

7%
12%
11%
-4%
Tax
41.97
46.55
50.73
59.05
60.64
Net Profit
107.54
113.33
128.67
140.33
131.23
NP growth

5%
14%
9%
-6%
EPS (unadj)
36.05
36.39
39.63
34.70



Quarterly Numbers



Mar 13
Jun 13
Sep 13
Dec 13
Mar 14
Jun 14
Sep 14
Dec 14
Mar 15
Jun 15
Sales
63.30
34.69
65.28
53.84
75.67
42.68
74.26
62.43
77.74
48.34
YoY growth




20%
23%
14%
16%
3%
13%
Expenses
19.51
19.36
17.69
21.37
24.41
22.59
22.73
23.98
25.84
24.29
Operating Profit
51.88
30.93
53.03
39.18
59.15
34.92
74.22
41.28
55.20
27.08
OPM
81.96
89.16
81.23
72.77
78.17
81.82
99.95
66.12
71.01
56.02
Other Income
8.09
15.61
5.45
6.71
7.89
14.84
22.69
2.84
3.20
2.92
Depreciation
0.53
0.53
0.79
0.72
0.85
1.41
1.27
1.18
1.10
1.06
Interest
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.19
1.10
0.01
0.00
Profit before tax
51.35
30.41
52.24
38.46
58.29
33.51
72.76
39.00
54.09
26.02
YoY growth




14%
10%
39%
1%
-7%
-22%
Tax
15.74
6.11
17.19
10.44
16.99
6.93
20.35
12.76
19.00
8.53
Net Profit
35.61
24.30
35.05
28.02
41.30
26.58
52.41
26.24
35.09
17.49